Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference
Current Mesoscale Discussions for the USA

Checks for Severe Potential, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snow, and Freezing Rain
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

AREAS AFFECTED...eastern South Carolina into central North Carolina
and far south-central Virginia

CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

VALID 051753Z - 052100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 percent

SUMMARY
...Sporadic severe gusts are possible through this afternoon
across the central Carolinas into southern Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Storms formed quickly near the SC sea breeze, and where
a very moist and unstable air mass was already in place this morning
per 12Z CHS sounding. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg also extends
northward across much of NC, where
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

AREAS AFFECTED...northeast Ohio...into western Pennsylvania

CONCERNING...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

VALID 051724Z - 052030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 percent

SUMMARY
...Storms may increase in coverage this afternoon, with
isolated SEVERE WIND GUSTS or even a brief/weak tornado.

DISCUSSION...An MCV/cluster of thunderstorms continues to move
eastward across northern OH and into northwest PA/western NY, which
is also along the instability gradient. Wind fields are generally
weak, but may be locally enhanced near this feature. The 12Z BUF
sounding shows a
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